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Trade war, international conflicts and geopolitical tensions

China has imposed its own punitive tariffs on US goods in response to new US tariffs, escalating the trade war between the two economic powers once again. While US President Trump granted Mexico and Canada a 30-day tariff pause, he imposed additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports. China responded with tariffs of up to 15% on US coal, LNG, crude oil and some vehicles, as well as export controls on key raw materials. China also launched an investigation into Google and placed other US companies on an “unreliable entity list”. Trump threatened further measures if China did not stop the smuggling of fentanyl. The markets reacted nervously and experts expect continued uncertainty.


However, President Trump granted Mexico and Canada a final 25% suspension of his tariffs and agreed to a 30-day pause in exchange for commitments on border security and fighting crime.


The Trump administration plans to close the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which provides humanitarian aid worldwide. USAID employees have been locked out of their offices while Elon Musk, tasked with making the government more efficient, pushes to dismantle the agency. Democratic senators are protesting and threatening to block confirmations for State Department positions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was appointed acting head and announced a reorganization. Experts warn that halting aid programs could endanger human lives.


In Santorini, Greece, the earth has been shaking continuously for twelve days. Thousands of people have left the island as experts fear a possible major earthquake and volcanic eruptions. Seismologists are at a loss as the series of quakes is unusual. The evacuated population is struggling with uncertainty and fear. Special flights and additional ferries have now been organized. Of particular concern is the nearby underwater volcano Kolumbos, which caused severe damage during an eruption in 1650. The authorities are hoping that the situation will ease, but warn that it is impossible to make precise predictions.


US President Donald Trump is demanding access rights to Ukraine's valuable raw materials, particularly rare earths, in exchange for extensive US aid. Trump once again criticized Joe Biden and declared that he was working on “deals” with Ukraine to secure guarantees for US support. He also accused the European Union of not contributing enough to aid for Ukraine and called on it to match this financially.


El Salvador offers to house dangerous criminals from the US in its prisons, including non-Salvadoran prisoners. President Nayib Bukele sees this as an opportunity to financially strengthen the Salvadoran justice system. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised the offer, which could facilitate Trump's tougher deportation policy. However, critics warn of the poor prison conditions in El Salvador. Trump is also expanding the use of Guantanamo Bay as a detention facility and lifting deportation protection for Venezuelans.


The US Senate has confirmed Chris Wright, CEO of fracking company Liberty Energy, as Secretary of Energy. Wright is in favor of expanding oil, gas and nuclear energy production and is skeptical of government climate protection measures. Together with EPA chief Lee Zeldin, he is to roll back Biden-era environmental regulations. He will also support the National Energy Dominance Committee, which wants to promote fossil energy projects. Wright will also be responsible for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which could be costly to replenish. He also supports the development of geothermal and nuclear power, including small modular reactors.


Investors are demanding clarity on Novo Nordisk's CagriSema as studies have disappointed. The drug showed severe side effects and no clear superiority over Lilly's Zepbound. Novo plans a new trial by June but is withholding details.


OpenAI and Kakao form AI partnership for South Korea. Following a deal with SoftBank in Japan, CEO Sam Altman is also planning talks in India. OpenAI is also considering investing in South Korea's national AI infrastructure.


Judge admonishes lawyers of Justin Baldoni and Blake Lively for public statements. Lively accuses Baldoni of sexual harassment, he sues for defamation. Start of trial: March 2026.


Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum was praised for her successful negotiations with Trump over the tariffs. She achieved a suspension of tariffs for one month while Mexico sent 10,000 troops to the border. Sheinbaum's cautious but strategic stance and her anti-drug and anti-crime measures were viewed positively. Her popularity rose and her message found support from the business community and the opposition.


The Biden administration was criticized for its slow delivery of arms to Ukraine, particularly due to internal concerns and insufficient US resources. Despite an authorization of $60 billion in aid funds, actual aid had not fully arrived by the end of 2024. These delays weakened Ukraine's military capabilities and contributed to territorial losses. There are fears that under a future administration, such as Trump's, there could be further cuts to US military aid.


EU leaders have agreed to boost defense efforts by increasing spending and closing gaps in military capabilities. While many European countries were already increasing their defense spending to respond to the threat from Russia, the question of how this spending would be funded remained unanswered. The EU discussed possible funding options such as national spending and a greater role for the European Investment Bank, while avoiding the politically sensitive issue of common debt. It was also stressed that Europe urgently needs to invest in its defense industry.


According to polls by the US think tank “Democracy Institute”, the AfD is already at 25%, while the CDU has plummeted to 27%. If the Germans were able to elect the chancellor directly, Weidel would even get 35% of the vote according to the polls (+9% ahead of Merz).


Donald Trump threatens Ukraine and Zelensky with destruction if Zelensky does not hold new elections quickly.


There was an explosion in the Alye Parusa luxury apartment complex in Moscow. At least one person has been confirmed dead and five injured. According to TASS, an unidentified explosive device was detonated - evidence of a targeted assassination. Investigators assume that the attack was intended to target one person.


Guantanamo is being massively expanded: White House confirms: Additional US Marines have arrived at the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in Cuba. Goal: To support President Trump's order to expand the Guantanamo Migrant Operations Center (GMOC) to “full capacity”. Planned capacity: Up to 30,000 illegal migrants are to be detained there and prepared for deportation. The measure is part of Trump's tougher immigration policy


According to The Telegraph, Iran is developing nuclear-capable missiles based on North Korean designs with a range of 3,000 km. This would allow Tehran to attack European targets directly from Iranian soil - a new level of escalation in the geopolitical power struggle. Background: Iran has been expanding its missile program for years and is working closely with North Korea.


Police officers in Saxony-Anhalt are under investigation for arresting an assassin in Magdeburg after he carried out a terrorist attack at a Christmas market. The officers allegedly did not treat the suspect gently enough during the arrest, which has now resulted in disciplinary and court proceedings. This has led to a public debate criticizing the fact that the perpetrator may enjoy more protection than the victims.


Donald Trump declared that he had given the order to attack the IS terrorists in Somalia. According to him, one of the main planners of the attacks had been tracked for several years, but the Biden administration did not act quickly enough.  The attacks destroyed the terrorists' caves along with the criminals without harming civilians.  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the losses of the fighters and specified that the target was destroyed by a targeted strike.

  • DAX: Can't cope with Trump - small sell-off (NTV)
  • Eurozone: Inflation rises to 2.5% (EN)
  • Hydrogen: Saudi Arabia to supply Germany from 2023 (NTV)
  • Julius Baer: Loses significantly after termination announcement (WSJ)
  • Bureaucracy: Standards Control Council presents proposals for cutting red tape (TGS)
  • Vanguard: Partially eliminates fees (FT)
  • DOGE: New efficiency ministry wants to close USAID (RTS)
  • Metals markets: Fall sharply after tariff yoyo (WSJ)
  • Ontario: Cancels $100m Starlink contract in protest (FT)
  • Turkey: Inflation “only” at 42% - in December 2024 it was 44% (WSJ)

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